Post-Soviet separatism (again)

I am no expert on Ukraine, or on the Crimea, but I have spent a significant amount of time in another separatist state, Transnistria (PMR). There are quite a few parallels, and although my first instinct was to brush off the initial events in the Crimea as occurring for a show, the past few days have left me with an ominous sense of dread.

As was the case in Transnistria, Russia has vocally spoken of protecting its citizens in the Crimea. This takes the form of the rapid issuance of Russian passports. This has already occurred in the Crimea, and in particular, reports indicate that the Russian consulate in Simferopol has been giving Russian passports to Berkut police officials. Next, Russian military forces will vaguely intervene (i.e., patrol alongside local irregulars, Cossack forces, agitators). Due to the buildup of these foreign forces, the de jure state will be provoked into responding (as was the case in Georgia and Moldova) which will in turn bring down the full force and fury of the Russian army. The particulars are not important, what is important is that a response occurs, and this entails at least some small degree of bloodshed.

The rhetoric is the same -- this is a Russian city/Russian land, we are Russians -- which arises in response to an enemy that is allegedly fascist in nature (in Transnistria, this took the form of a demonization of Moldovans and the Moldovan state as Romanian fascists intent on turning Transnistria back into a bloody WWII era concentration camp), in Crimea the Maidan activists become fascists intent of unleashing pogroms against ethnic Russians.

Ukraine is a lot larger and arguably more important than Georgia. I can't see this escalation ending well for either side. Any attempt to install Yanukovych under a Russian-dominated military rule would be doomed to fail. On the other hand, the Ukrainian economy is on the brink of default, and Russia shows no signs of relenting. I think more than anything these recent events show the insecurity of Putin as a leader.

The power of Ukraine now is not that it might be divided, invaded, federalized, or all of the above -- it shows how, rightly or wrongly, the people can and will take matters into their own hands. Ukrainians, both Russian and Ukrainian speakers, can now see Russia for the punitive bully that it is. The key to creating a separatist polity is in keeping the de jure political forces at bay. This already seems well under way in Ukraine.

Crimeans might want to think long and hard about what a Russian occupation might bring, given that its economy is almost exclusively based on tourism. But then again, Russian tourists seem to enjoy warzones.

Or they can always to go Sochi.